| Archive for Downsizer For an ethical approach to consumption |
| tahir |
Bird Flu for beginnersInstant Expert: Bird FluThe H5N1 strain of influenza - often referred to as bird flu - was first known to have jumped from chickens to humans in 1997. Since 2004 it has ripped through Asian poultry farms, and had a 70% mortality rate in the first 70 people it is known to have infected. Health authorities fear this strain, or its descendents, could cause a lethal new flu pandemic with the potential to kill billions. Flu has been a regular scourge of humanity for thousands of years. The flu viruses are a large family, each possessing a mere 10 genes encoded in RNA. All of the 16 known groups originate in water birds, especially ducks and gulls. The virus is well adapted to their immune systems, and does not usually make them very sick. This leaves the animals free to move around and spread the virus - just what it needs to persist. Rampaging virus But every now and then a bird flu virus jumps to an animal whose immune system it is not adapted to. In chickens, a forest bird originally and not a natural host, it causes a moderate disease but can readily mutate to a more severe strain. Just such a strain of H5N1 flu, named after its surface proteins, has been rampaging through large chicken farms in east Asia. That is of concern because, in 1997, scientists found for the first time that H5 flu is capable of infecting humans. It was found in 18 people, six of whom died. All the poultry in Hong Kong were destroyed to stop the threat. But it continued to circulate, especially in China. There were further human cases in China in 2003. Then in early 2004 Vietnam reported widespread poultry outbreaks and some human cases. After initial denials, Cambodia and Thailand admitted they had outbreaks too, followed by China. That was immediately after China had denied a New Scientist report that scientists strongly suspected Chinese outbreaks. A mass poultry cull stopped the outbreaks by March 2004, by which time 23 people had died. But the virus persisted, most probably in ducks. Attempts to blame its persistence and spread in the region on wild birds are widely discounted by scientists. The outbreaks started again in summer 2004, and by mid-April 2005 had caused a total of 51 human deaths, all in Thailand and Vietnam. Making the jump The two or three flu virus families that have made the jump to humans mostly cause mild disease, because they have adapted to our immune systems. A yearly winter flu epidemic afflicts most of the world. But it is not totally benign. About 700,000 people around the world die of it each year, mainly the very old, very young and the infirm. Common flu vaccines are increasing in popularity, although flu evolves so fast that we need new shots every year. In 2004 an unexpected shortage of vaccine in the US underscored the fragility of the vaccine supply, which is produced by very few manufacturers. As New Scientist predicted, it took strenuous efforts to limit available supplies to those most at risk of serious illness, preventing excess deaths. But flu is at its most deadly when it first makes the jump to people, having had no opportunity to adapt itself to our immune systems. H5N1 has continued to infect humans as the outbreak in poultry has raged, with an apparently high fatality rate. It has so far has been hard to contract, and has not spread readily between people. If this viral strain should acquire that ability, it could become a lethal pandemic - the name for an epidemic that spreads worldwide. Deadly pandemic That is what happened in 1918, when a virulent flu strain appeared in humans and killed 50 million people within a few months. There have also been two less catastrophic pandemics. The so-called "Asian" flu of 1957 caused between one and four million deaths, while 1968's "Hong Kong" flu - with about half the estimated deadliness of the Asian flu - caused one to two million deaths. Both of these were human flu viruses which had recombined with bird flu viruses, rendering them unrecognisable to the human immune system. The 1957 strain was nearly released by accident in 2005. Virologists generally agree that we are due for another pandemic. So they are very worried about H5N1, because - like the 1918 event - it seems to be evolving to become more deadly to mammals. This is largely in China and, possibly, as New Scientist revealed, in vaccinated chickens. It could evolve into a potential pandemic that way, or by recombining with human flu, especially as most people in the Far East are not vaccinated against ordinary flu strains. Mitigation measures Fortunately we can make vaccines for the H5N1 strain, although our ability to get them tested and manufactured in time for a pandemic is in doubt. Once an effective vaccine is produced, yet another hurdle would be administering it swiftly. If either aspect of that process should fail, the only backup would be antiviral drugs. A few new ones are on the horizon, but existing drugs are in short supply. If the flu virus changes genetically, it may become less deadly. However, there is no reason to think this will happen, and a highly contagious virus with a 70% death rate is a terrifying prospect, particularly given the speed of modern international travel. There is also a chance that it could evolve into a completely new disease, which we could fail to spot before it spreads. Even if H5 does not trigger the next pandemic, its cousins H7 and H9 could. H7 is present in the same region and also infected large numbers of Dutch people in an outbreak in 2003. Although it caused few symptoms, and only one death, fears remain that such a poultry virus could cross-breed with a human flu, making it even more dangerous. Some scientists are not willing to wait and see. They are trying to breed contagiousness into H5N1 to see if it is likely to happen. Others are breeding replicas of the 1918 virus - from samples recovered from victims - to see just what made it so deadly. But some feel that those experiments, because of the potential for escape from the lab, put us at as much risk as the natural evolution of the virus. Debora Mackenzie, 6 May 2005 http://www.newscientist.com/channel/health/bird-flu |
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| tahir |
Bird flu knocks on Europe’s door
* 18:03 25 August 2005 * NewScientist.com news service * Debora MacKenzie Chief veterinary officials from the European Union’s 25 member states met in Brussels on Thursday to discuss what to do if wild birds carrying H5N1 bird flu bring it to Europe from Russia. But they concluded it is not clear whether wild birds are spreading the virus in Russia, nor how likely it is that birds migrating into Europe could be carrying it. H5N1 bird flu has been identified in backyard poultry in the Novosibirsk region of Russia, where an outbreak started in late July. DNA sequence information from samples near Novosibirsk shows it is highly similar to the virus that killed thousands of wild birds at Qinghai Lake in China in May 2005. Russia has also reported outbreaks involving H5 bird flu in backyard poultry in its Altai Kray, Tyuman, Omsk, Kurgan and Cheyabinsk regions, which cover a band of territory parallel to the northern border of Kazakhstan. H5N1 flu has also been confirmed in Kazakhstan. It is not clear how similar any of these latter viruses are to the Qinghai H5N1 or others that have circulated in east Asia and caused 57 human deaths so far. But whether this spread is likely to continue into Europe depends on whether it is being carried by healthy migrating birds. If instead the virus is being spread by trade in infected poultry, as it has been in south-east Asia, the picture would be different. And the infections reported so far do coincide geographically with major rail, trade and travel links through the region. Reservoir risks? Evidence for spread by wild birds is circumstantial. Yevgeny Nepoklonov, head of the veterinary department of the Russian Agriculture Ministry, told the World Animal Health Organisation (OIE) in Paris this month that in the six territories where outbreaks have been reported, “the first [domestic] birds to be affected are those kept in homes close to reservoirs” – where wild birds may visit. On the other hand, not one healthy wild bird carrying highly pathogenic H5N1 has yet been reported, apart from a few carrying a somewhat different virus in Hong Kong in 2002. Hon Ip, a virologist at the US National Wildlife Health Center in Madison, Wisconsin, US, notes that in Russia’s report on Novosibirsk to the OIE, the H5N1 virus it had isolated from a wild duck was different from the viruses isolated in its domestic poultry. “No data that shows the wild birds were the vector of transmission has been made available at the present time,” Ip commented on ProMED-Mail, an internet bulletin board on emerging disease. “The same pattern of spread can just as easily be seen as from the major routes of human transportation.” Holding fire Adding to uncertainties, an investigation of an outbreak of bird flu on remote lakes in Mongolia by the Wildlife Conservation Society in August found that only 100 birds of more than 6000 on the lake died, suggesting either that the virus does not infect many birds in wild flocks, or the majority of birds that caught the virus remained healthy carriers. If wild birds are carrying H5N1, say European veterinary experts, the key to preventing outbreaks will be to prevent contact between poultry and wild birds. Free-range chickens have already been moved under cover in the Netherlands, which has had major outbreaks of other kinds of bird flu recently. But the vets in Brussels recommended that EU countries: hold their fire, increase their monitoring of flu viruses in wild birds, be ready to destroy infected birds, bring free-range animals inside if the virus is detected. They recommended that in at-risk situations poultry vaccination might be considered as a risk-mitigating measure. Bird Flu - Learn more about the flu pandemic that could kill millions in our continually updated special report. |
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| cab |
Not a bad summary, thanks!
The only thing I'd add is that this is an amazingly dynamic situation. Reports and updates on infections, test results and precationary measures are now coming out daily, have been for some time. Sometimes it looks like we're just waiting for the spread of a diseasel the truth is that health workers and microbiologists are waging a constant battle against it. |
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| Alchemist |
One of my colleagues asked me the other day if I was worried about bird flu after seeing on the news that the Dutch had ordered all their birds indoors. When asked if our chickens posed a threat to us I had to say I hadn't a clue. I imagine that the risk is exceedingly small even if the virus does spread further west, but thinking like that definitely makes you want to look into it more carefully even if only to be able to be certain it isn't an issue. | ||||
| dpack |
run to the hills with your best chucks when we are all dead ,return and claim the world.. dont panic...... | ||||
| thos |
I had decided that this was perhaps not the best time to start to keep chickens. However
If bird flue gets here, they should be safe if I keep them in the run. If the human strain gets here, my family would be more likely to catch it from other people than my chickens. Would the panel agree? |
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| Nanny |
bird flualmost looks that wayif it takes hold it'll get you one way or another but least of all through your own hens, it appears vaccination of flocks seems the logical way forward if they can get enough vaccine together. a lot of foods have the vaccines in them already so it would be just another additive i guess trouble is the panic that will ensue and that will mean a demand for the destruction of back yard birds. that will be a terrible time i don't want to have to see things like those when foot and mouth was present here several years ago. smaller scale but every bit as unpleasant |
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| Alchemist |
I reckon so. It's relatively easy to quarantine the chickens if need be. Much more difficult to avoid people with a cold. | ||||
| cab |
That rather depends on the run and the extent of air flow it has, and contact between wild bird faeces particles in the air... So they're safer, but not totally safe. Fairly sell sealed off intensive farms in Japan have been hit by bird flu, remember.
If a sideshoot of this strain becomes transmissible from human to human, that's when it becomes the big killer we all fear. Personally, I wouldn't yet worry about transmission from your own livestock to you. |
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| cab |
Re: bird flu
For over half a century, microbiologists have been arguing that we need facilities to produce new vaccines in large bulk really, really fast. No one pays attention 
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| Nanny |
bird flualways seems like a closing of the barn door after the horse has bolted when it comes to those sorts of thingsnot being an expert so i will ask had the govt pulled it 's finger out and started vaccinating stock would the tragedy of foot and mouth been avoided i.e. the mass destruction[/i] |
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| cab |
Re: bird flu
No. Wouldn't have helped. But that's WAAAY off for this discussion. |
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| Nanny |
bird fluwhy?i was thinking if vaccination would be suitable for chickens why wasn't it suitable for cloven 'oofs at that time did it mutate too quickly for that or what |
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| cab |
Re: bird flu
Rather than deal with F&M here, we're better off doing it in another thread; I'm conscious that we could easily lose track of keeping this thread for simple, plain talking concepts of bird flu. |
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| saffranne |
no point in worrying about something that might or might not happen
my hens all 120 of them plus chicks are part of my everyday life,extended family along with the 6 cats and three dogs,ooops sorry forgot to mention husband. they are a very lively bunch and the eggs are a double bonus and very nice too if we ever do get the bird flu,which i sincerely hope we dont,then we will no doubt deal with it |
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| Behemoth |
More bird flu deaths:
http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/world/asia-pacific/4281794.stm |
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| dougal |
Yes, this is particularly worrying because of the fact that quite a lot of those infected in Jakarta have had fairly indirect contact with infected birds. They just visited the zoo. The scale of the human toll in this outbreak is hard to determine. Its perfectly reasonable to assume that the official figures are 'incomplete'. They tested 27 random birds in the zoo for H5N1. Only 4 *didn't* have it. So they closed the zoo to the public. BUT it was almost a fortnight before they got the results and acted... How long had things been bad before they did the tests? It looks to me as though the zoo has been struck by a new version of H5N1 that spreads more easily from birds to humans. But if, as reported previously, "hundreds" of people have gone down with flu after visiting the zoo - yet only a few have died, it just might indicate that this latest version isn't quite so lethal for humans. If so, its a great mercy. |
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| tahir |
The Dubya is worried:
http://news.yahoo.com/s/nm/20051004/ts_nm/bush_birdflu_dc |
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| dougal |
I must say that Dubya's thinking on this puts me in mind of the saying that -
"To a man with a hammer, all problems look like nails." |
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| mandycharlie |
Hubby and I have had many conversations about this subject. (we only have eight chickens in a townie type environment)
Sadly, we have come to the conclussion, that IF Defra or any other government body requires chooks to be kept inside, we would be unable to comply and as importantly even if we did take a huge chunk of our garden at the front to build a shed, we suspect that the *neighbours* would take things into their own hands.. which would not be very pleasant for our chooks, children (to witness or experience) or us. So we would have to cull, (by what means I'm not sure as yet, although we do have a wall mounted humane dispatcher for extremely poorly chickens, as yet not used, not even attached to a wall) I wonder to myself (in the deep dark recesses of the night) whether it would be better for the chooks to be taken out one by one by us and culled where the others couldn't see, (with much distress to us of course) or let the men from Defra come in and do the ugly deed. Less distress to us, but how much more to our chooks.. Anybody else facing this, what do you think? |
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| Nanny |
bird fluwe have always done it each apart from the others if possible more i think for our benefit than the birds but somehow it seems more correct to do it that waywe have also discussed this scenario and agree that we woudl rather top our own than leave it to ministry employed men who may not be quite so thorough forlack of a better word. |
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| Andy B |
I think that it is important to take as many measures as you can to try and stop a problem occuring. If you keep all food items under cover then bird muck shouldnt be able to get on them, make sure that their is no food left lying around to encourage vermin, all of these thing should be done anyway but, If you up the anti on hygene within the run that will help. We have just bought two Dorking chicks, they are too small to go in with the other birds, so they are living in the green house. We would have done that any way because you should always try to quarantine new birds for at least 2 or 3 weeks. | ||||
| Behemoth |
Bird Flu in Turkey http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/world/europe/4337918.stm | ||||
| Treacodactyl |
There are also unexpalined cases in Romania and Bulgaria, initial tests say it's not bird flu but other cases unknown. It seems it took the EU several days to ban the importing of poultry products though so goodness knows where it may crop up next. 
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| Blue Peter |
We don't keep birds or anything, but we do live near a lake with lots of geese, swans and ducks (don't know about their migratory habits), and the consequent faeces.
I quite enjoy taking the children for a walk around the lake, but might it be better not to for a while? Peter. |
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| Behemoth |
From the BBC website:
"Q: How do humans catch avian flu? Avian flu was thought only to infect birds until the first human cases were seen in Hong Kong in 1997. Humans catch the disease through close contact with live infected birds. Birds excrete the virus in their faeces, which dries and becomes pulverised, and is then inhaled. Symptoms are similar to other types of flu - fever, malaise, sore throats and coughs. People can also develop conjunctivitis. Researchers are now concerned because scientists studying a case in Vietnam found the virus can affect all parts of the body, not just the lungs. This could mean that many illness, and even deaths, thought to have been caused by something else, may have been due to the bird flu virus. " |
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| Blue Peter |
So, it's probably not a good idea to walk where there is quite a lot of bird faeces (of course, I won't be able to tell whether the birds are infected or not)? Peter. |
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| JB |
I thought the major vector was migrating wild birds?, hence the cases occuring as wild birds migrate south from Russia down past the Black Sea |
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| dougal |
Peter, there is essentially *ZERO* risk to humans in the UK from "Bird Flu" - at this point. Worry more about lightening strikes on your children. Turkey *has* got H5N1. But there are different sub-strains of H5N1. Thus far, *all* the human casualties have been in the far east. Although the disease has spread to China, Siberia, the Urals and through the Caucasas into Turkey, all along that route, it hasn't harmed people. The original strain in Vietnam seemed to affect people who inhaled bird dust, and bird dropping dust - and for those few who got it, it was *very* serious. There's another sub-strain, in Indonesia, which seems to spread more easily from birds to humans, and might have started to learn how to spread from person to person. But that sub-strain is nowhere near Europe - for now. And, it might well be that that sub-strain is not as frighteningly lethal as the first one. This is bad news for poultry, but to repeat, the serious risk to humans, particularly in the UK, is still some way off. |
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| cab |
The virus has a broad host range; we might expect it to spread rapidly by migrating birds, but it's sensible to quarantine poultry from areas that may have the infection. |
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| cab |
That's all true. And remember, till such a time as the virus spreads into humans in a mutated form that can spread between people, the risk here is low. The precautions being taken now are all about trying to prevent that happening. |
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| Blue Peter |
Cheers all. We'll continue going to the lake (and the magnificent playground by it),
Peter. |
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| Andy B |
In an article in National Gepgraphic mag they seem to be worried about pigs being and extra mixing ground for bird flu/ pig flu/ human flu, so that a new combination of the three will be formed. In the far east the people seem to live cheek by jowl with all their livestock making it far easier for the flu to spread. | ||||
| dougal |
Its not so much "spread" as cross-contaminate, which provides better opportunity for "virus cross-breeding" (non-technical term) and hastens the evolution of a future sub-strain that might be able to spread easily from human to human. It is a valid general concern, but its damn difficult to do much about... |
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| JKLawrence |
Personally, I will err on the safe side. If bird flu makes it to the UK, I will cull my flock (unless someone wants to take the good layers). I was intending most of them for the table anyway. I will try to do it humanely. And I will do it knowing that the birds would probably never have been a risk to my family. I just don't see any point in taking a risk that I don't need to take.
It would be different if chickens were my livelihood. But they're a hobby, and thus not necessary to our lives. For now I agree that there is no risk, because the disease hasn't made it here and may never come. But once the risk is there, however small, I will choose not to take it. Sorry chickens - but my family are too important. |
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| Andy B |
I almost get the feeling that it will get here by returning holiday maker anyway. And they travel much faster, Turkey to Luton 2-3 hours. |
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| bagpuss |
It was interesting listing to the stuff on the today programme about this
They spoke to John Sulston about the matter (not sure why he researches nematodes) and he was bring up ideas which have been put about before by another person at the sanger Tim Hubbard If only one company can make the anti viral drugs we need to stock pile shouldn't the government either come to an arrangement or even force the company to allow other manufacturers to make the drug to ensure we have enough to deal with the problem. Such legislation at least exists in the US as it was used in WWII for planes |
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| dougal |
Medicines. There are plenty of folk researching the production of vaccines against H5N1-type flu viruses. But there's no point in making any such vaccine for humans, because there is, as yet, no specific human H5N1 to target. I'd like to think that Government has made plans to requisition if required, any appropriate manufacturing facilities to mass-produce a vaccine as soon as one becomes available. But I have heard nothing whatsoever on the subject. Anti-virals. Roche's production of Tamiflu is pre-sold for years ahead. Should Government action be taken? Well... one important question is whether or not Tamiflu is effective against all strains of H5N1. And its a real question - which the media has overlooked in its current hysteria. Have a look here http://www.recombinomics.com/News/07180501/H5N1_In_Vivo_Tamiflu.html There are older anti viral drugs which are out of patent protection, and would appear to be effective against the H5N1 versions from Russia, and presumably Turkey. Amantadines, such as Flumadine and Symmetrel, may yet have a part to play. The media's exclusive focus on Tamiflu is because the lethal form of H5N1 that killed people in Vietnam was amantadine-resistant. However, if some H5N1's are Tamiflu resistant, there is a fair probability that it could prove ineffective against a future human H5N1. And the stockpiles and personal stashes would be wasted... Its a very hard call for governments as to how much of a scarce drug they should stockpile - when its efficacy has to be in doubt. BTW - I really wish that someone could get through to the media that H5N1 is not one thing. There are many distinct strains, with different lethalities, and different strengths and weaknesses against drugs. |
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| dougal |
Anti Viral drugs
Here's a vote for Relenza from GlaxoSmithKline. EDIT: Its a report of a study on one of the isolates {specific virus specimens} from Vietnam. That particular victim had been given Tamiflu, to no effect. http://www.cidrap.umn.edu/cidrap/content/influenza/avianflu/news/oct1405resistance.html I really, really hope that our leaders don't get seduced into thinking that Tamiflu is THE answer, and the ONLY answer. The strategic use for such anti-virals is to keep essential services (eg power, hospitals, police, etc - and yes, probably including Government too) functioning until a vaccine is available. But, it'd be unfortunate if the defensive weapon turns out to be the wrong one.... |
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| Treacodactyl |
Channel 4 news brought this up last night, along with the possibility other countries are starting to make a generic Tamiflu without permission. Also interesting to see Roche don't own the Tamiflu patent and the company that does is not happy with Roche IIRC... | ||||
| Stacey |
But that wouldn't be nearly sensational enough for them. The scaremongering that the media is responsible for is really getting on my wick. |
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| Stacey |
We feel exactly the same mandy. It's something we've discussed at length over the last couple of weeks. We would probably be able to find some kind of shed/outbuilding for the chickens but we beleive so strongly in having aour chickens as free range as possibe that we wouldn't be happy with keeping them indoors. We're just waiting for Defra to bring out whatever sledgehammer legislation they feel necessary to crack this nut. The media need to realise that if they cause panic with their scaremongering they could influence any decision that defra makes with far reaching consequences for people who keep chickens , especially free range |
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| Stacey |
Seeing as the Queen is going to be the first to be vaccinated maybe she could be the guinea pig 
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| dougal |
Introductory Note:
Vaccine: a treatment to teach the body's immune system to recognise a *specific* virus, so that when/if the real thing is encountered, it can be recognised and dealt with by the body's own system. H5N1 is a type of virus. Until there is a specific H5N1 that causes a real threat to human health, it is not possible to design, let alone mass produce, a vaccine against that specific virus. Flu vaccine manufacture is not quick. And there are technical problems with manufacturing H5-type vaccines by 'traditional' methods. Anti-viral drug: a substance which, while it is in the body, interferes with the life-cycle of the virus, stopping it breeding/spreading/whatever. These drugs each target a different specific activity that is vital to the virus's life-cycle. By restricting the virus, the body's systems get more chance to learn how to deal with it, and have much smaller scale problem to deal with. It is hoped that Anti-Viral drugs will contain a future pandemic, and protect "essential workers" during the time that a vaccine might be developed and manufactured. But different sub-strains ("isolates") of the virus type have different sensitivities and resistances to different drugs. The most that has been claimed for Tamiflu is that it makes H5N1 illness less severe, and allows a faster recovery. It may help to make a patient much less infectious as well. I believe that a treatment course of Tamiflu currently costs slightly more than £50. Its taken in tablet form, and the tablets have a long shelf-life, although it doesn't stay in the body very long - so tablets need to be taken more than once a day (specific dosages are currently slightly controversial). However, particular isolates of H5N1 have shown resistance to Tamiflu, but not Relenza. Other isolates have shown resistance to Amantadines. Relenza is taken via an inhaler, and has a much shorter shelf-life than Tamiflu. Because we cannot yet do more than guess at the weaknesses of a future human pandemic virus, I really think that the Government should have a multi-track strategy, and not "put all its eggs in the one (Tamiflu) basket". |
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| dave d |
bird flui only have 2o chickens and 10 ducks at the moment and 3 geese but like the other people if the worse comes to the worse i will cull them myself they may only be chickens to some but to me they are all family and freinds and no one is comeing near my girls but me when it comes to the deed , but i pray to god that day will never come
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| mandycharlie |
I so understand.
On that point,,, of culling... as I said earlier we have the equipment, but are not necessarily skilled in using it. I've asked a friend who used to be a game keeper to come and help us if this sad day occurs.. but.... am I right in this, I'm sure there is something within Defra that says only skilled people possibly trained people may cull animals,,, does that include chickens,,, or are you allowed in law to cull your own. I know its not an easy decision to make, but once made, I would much rather slowly catch my hens, (all eight of them) without stress and make their last journey as pleasant as possible, without transporting them in a car inside some sort of box, or letting men in white coats rush the operation. So, getting back to my friend, who was a game keeper, would the regulations (what regulations) allow him to cull (if absolutely necessary) my hens... or do I have to wait for the ministery men?? I fear even though the neighbours would be up in arms if the hens were kept,,, they would also be up in arms if the deed were done not to their liking... maybe I'm a little paranoid, but if anyone could help it would be appreciated. |
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| JB |
I'm sure that can't be right, otherwise nobody could keep chickens for the pot! Of course it may be right when it comes to killing animals for resale to the general public as by that point you're into a whole new area of public health and safety legislation. A related question that my OH asked this morning ... If bird flu were to reach the UK or becoming pandemic would it be irresponsible to put out food for wild birds? |
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| judith |
No, you won't risk falling foul of the law if you or your friend culls your chickens. The rules for poultry and sheep/cattle/pigs are different. Let's hope it doesn't come to that though. |
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| bagpuss |
If bird flu does reach the UK putting food out for wild ducks or other similar birds would be an issue because it puts you in contact with those birds and increases the risk of infection I don't think garden birds such as the tits or finches are in the same catergory though |
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| dougal |
I don't see why any bird can be considered to be at no risk from the virus.
Note that I'm considering risks *to* the bird. But that risk would seem to diminish the less contact it has with waterfowl. Notably Dr Stuttaford, The Times' medical corespondant addresses the bird table question in a column today (and the technical problems of Tamiflu manufacture - shortage of Star Anise, explosions, etc!) He concludes:
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| Mrs Fiddlesticks |
There is a statement on the Wildfowl and Wetlands Trust site here which was updated 14th October. might be an idea to keep an eye on them, they're more front line than we domestic poultry keepers are! | ||||
| dougal |
Keeping it very simple for this thread, the WWT statement doesn't want to accept liability for wild bird migration spreading the disease. And then, they say that there is little risk of the disease being spread here. I think thats called being in denial. However, I do wholeheartedly agree with their plea that the media distinguish between a current disease with an immediate threat to poultry and the possibility of a future human disease. |
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| dpack |
bad for chucks . toasters are much worse for people |
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| Gertie |
People are talking about culling their birds, god I hope it does not come to this - just wondering what precautionary measures are you taking at the moment. Anyone got their birds under cover? | ||||
| JB |
WWI - 30 million dead in 5 years Spanish flu - 50 million dead in 5 months I hope you're right and at the moment it looks like you will be right but there's certainly no guarantee of that. (OTOH you're definitely right about the poverty thing) |
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| Stacey |
What will the implications be for rare breeds I wonder? | ||||
| dougal |
Gertie, I started another thread for just that purpose... http://forum.downsizer.net/viewtopic.php?t=7730 |
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| dpack |
if iam correct poverty kills 9000 kids per day where as h5n1 has killed 60 people in the last year .even if my stats are close but not exact |
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| bagpuss |
Currently h5n1 strains of avian flu aren't major killers but if it does turn into a virus of equivalent danger to humans as the 1918 flu then it has the potential to kill upwards of 30000 people day, Poverty and lack of decent healthcare and sanitation are terrible things we must do something about. Currently H5N1 strains of flu aren't a major killer but it doesn't mean that it won't be while the currently methods many governments are taking may or may not be correct it isn't something they can ignore nor should it be |
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| cab |
While thats true, kind of, you're missing something very, very fundamental about influenza, or even about the whole evolution of pathogens. Generally speaking, a new pathogen is more dangerous. There's no real advantage to a microbe in killing you, it would be better off living in you and spreading as you contact other potential hosts for it. But such stable interractions take a long, long time to evolve. So we're most endangered by newer pathogens. A new pathogen has to have a way of getting into our population, and you can think about the 60 cases so far as being a set of flukes. Once in a while a form of the vrus will get into a person, and that person is in big trouble. But more rarely (although at least three times in the 20th century) the fluke happenstance happens with a mutant form of the bug; either in the new host, or in the old one, it becomes a variant form of the virus that can pass from human to human. If it sounds like sci-fi, tell it to the untold millions who have died at the hands of such viruses. People dying of malaria matter. People dying due to poverty matter. I totally agree, and in my view you can point at even more unforgivable causes of death as examples of mans incapacity to do the right thing for his fellow man. You know that people still die, in their thousands, due to infections brought about by leprosy? And that's an entirely cureable disease? Outrageous, isn't it? Sooner or later, though, there will be another global pandemic of influenza. The numbers and the science are irrefutable. And when that happens, we need to be ready, because the way people live now means that we may see a death toll that makes all other global pandemics seem like happy memories.
You're missing something fundamental about biological warfare agents; few of them are designed to be transmissible. Yes, there's evidence that the Soviets weaponised smallpox, but it's likely that they destroyed stocks of that before the end of the cold war. Their weapons of choice were anthrax (sparingly deadly and unpleasant, not transmissible between people), tularemia (not often deadly, very good at putting a whole division of enemy soldiers on their backs), and various toxins; they did weaponise marburg, but that thankfully has a habit of killing everyone who gets it then stopping (it's a farily new human pathogen, so it's too damned deadly for its own good). Panic won't help against influenza? If you have a way of making the population be alert and aware without panicing them, please share it with the WHO. They'd love to hear from you. |
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| dougal |
The news reports frequently mention people in the areas with confirmed outbreaks being *vaccinated*.
This was puzzling because no proper vaccine exists against H5N1... The answer to the puzzle is simply that the protocol is to vaccinate everyone in the area against the current *ordinary* flus, so as to minimise the possibility of existing human flu cross-breeding (reassorting or recombining) with H5N1 to produce an H5N1 that 'works' in humans. There is work going on to develop H5N1 vaccines, there was even an anouncement tonight http://www.forbes.com/work/feeds/afx/2005/10/19/afx2286951.html from Hungary, which sounds very promising. It may well be that such 'approximate' vaccines may be a better bet than antivirals to restrict a human pandemic strain, until a proper vaccine can be produced. |
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| Behemoth |
Defra Statement:
Statement on Avian Influenza It is important to underline that the H5N1 strain of avian influenza, now reported in southern Europe, is essentially a disease of birds and poultry. The risk to human health only arises in persons in very close contact with infected birds. The NFU, together with the British poultry industry and the government are working very closely together to minimise the risk of the disease entering this country. The NFU and poultry representative bodies urge the Government to step up its controls at border points. In the event that the H5N1 virus does enter the country we are taking every step to ensure that any outbreak in poultry would be quickly recognised, contained and eradicated. The NFU and other poultry bodies have been working closely with Defra for the last 31/2 years to develop contingency plans. Each of our organisations has a register of all its poultry members and has communicated on issues of disease control on a regular basis. However, we all agree that we should coordinate our database, on the location and size of all our commercial enterprises, so that we can issue precautionary messages quickly to all poultry farmers and be fully prepared to manage a disease outbreak. The European Directive on Avian Influenza will require us to introduce a poultry register by 2007 - but we must move much faster than that. We have therefore agreed that Defra will immediately start work on compiling its existing data sources so that it can begin inviting new registrations from poultry businesses within the next month. The British poultry industry is highly professional and responsible, works under very close veterinary scrutiny and has had strict biosecurity arrangements in place for many years. In the event of an outbreak, we would all have particular concerns over the health of poultry farmers, their families and their staff. This concerns around 50,000 people. However, poultry businesses and their employees need clear guidance on how to assure worker safety in the event of Avian flu. Already a wide range of industry stakeholders have been working on this issue with the Health Protection Agency, Health and Safety Executive, State Veterinary Service, Department of Health and others. We are all committed to ensuring that the guidance is available this month and the NFU and other poultry associations will use their membership lists to distribute it throughout the industry. We know that small semi-commercial and hobby poultry keepers need effective non-technical advice on how to protect their birds. Defra are launching a simple one page guide of key points which they have prepared for this purpose. Defra and the industry will do all it can to ensure that the guide is made widely available to this important sector. The British poultry industry is a real success story, with an annual value at farm level of £1,674 million. We have the second biggest poultry industry in Europe (after France), producing almost 14% of Europe's poultrymeat to the highest quality with very strict production standards. Poultry and poultry products remain a delicious and nutritious part of the British diet, especially when backed by food assurance schemes such as the Red tractor. Virtually all the fresh poultrymeat you buy in Britain is of British origin. It would be a tragedy if this industry were to be undermined by Avian Influenza, or by unfounded scare stories. We would again like to underline the fact that the World Health Organisation and the British Food Standards Agency have both confirmed that properly cooked poultry products present absolutely no risk to human health. Further information See the avian influenza pages in our animal health section. http://www.defra.gov.uk/animalh/diseases/notifiable/disease/ai/index.htm Page published: 20 October 2005 |
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| Behemoth |
And a Defra press release:
NATIONAL REGISTER OF POULTRY BUSINESSES TO BE SET UP AS ADDITIONAL PROTECTION AGAINST AVIAN INFLUENZA Commercial poultry keepers will be asked to register their flocks as part of an initiative, backed by the industry, to step up surveillance of the avian influenza virus, the Government announced today. Defra already has a detailed contingency plan in the event of an outbreak but this new move, announced today by the Prime Minister and the president of the National Farmers' Union (NFU), will further reinforce our protection against any future outbreak of the disease. Currently Defra, the NFU and individual poultry organisations, hold information separately but no central register exists. Combining all the information on one database containing the location and size of enterprises would be a major advantage to aid effective communication between keepers and help manage any outbreak. Defra will start inviting new registrations from poultry businesses within the next month. Meanwhile, Defra is also publishing today a simple one-page guide on avian flu and how poultry keepers can reduce the risk of disease. Information for farmers is available on the website, and farmers should seek advice from their vet. This is especially directed at non-commercial and hobby keepers. Defra will work closely with the non-commercial sector to ensure the guide is made widely available. Margaret Beckett, Secretary of State for Environment Food and Rural Affairs, said: "The recent confirmed outbreaks of the H5N1 strain in Turkey and Romania have refocused attention on our avian influenza contingency plans. "Defra has worked closely with the poultry industry to prepare its contingency plans which were successfully tested in July. We believe we are prepared to deal with an outbreak. "The European directive on avian influenza will require us to introduce a poultry register by 2007 but we must move much faster than that. "This database would be another safeguard to help identify an outbreak but, more importantly, limit its spread. It would allow us to know where poultry farms are and target effort and resources effectively. "I want to thank the NFU and the poultry organisations for their continued advice and assistance. Farmers hold the key to tackling any notifiable disease and we will continue to work together with them to ensure any avian influenza outbreak is quickly contained an eradicated." Information on how poultry keepers can reduce the risk of disease is available on the Avian Influenza pages of the Defra website. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Notes for Editors The British poultry industry has an annual value at farm level of £1,674 million. We have the second biggest poultry industry in Europe (after France), producing almost 14 per cent of Europe's poultry meat to very strict production standards. The Government continues to urge all poultry keepers to maintain high levels of bio-security Biosecurity means taking steps to ensure good hygiene practices are in place so that the risk of a disease occurring or spreading is minimised. Good biosecurity should be practised at all times, not just during a disease outbreak. Taking the right measures at all times can help protect your birds, your business, the industry and the community. Good biosecurity: helps keep out exotic poultry diseases such as Avian flu and Newcastle Disease; reduces the risk of zoonotic diseases such as salmonella becoming established; limits the spread of diseases and helps to protect your neighbours, public health and the countryside; improves overall flock health; cuts costs of disease treatment; and reduces losses, which could improve farm profitability. The new avian influenza directive updates and expands on the existing directive in the light of the lessons learned in the outbreak in the Netherlands in 2003 and the most recent scientific knowledge. It will provide for improved measures including controls on the low pathogenic strain. Once the revised directive is adopted there is provision for member states to bring in its provisions early in the event of an outbreak. |
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| Mrs Fiddlesticks |
do you have the link to the one page hobby poultry keepers bit? Or is not up yet? | ||||
| Behemoth |
Posiibly this? http://www.defra.gov.uk/animalh/diseases/notifiable/disease/ai/pdf/protectleaflet.pdf | ||||
| bagpuss |
Roche have said they will licence the production of tamiflu to other pharmaceutical companies.
http://www.newscientist.com/article.ns?id=mg18825224.100 |
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| Mrs Fiddlesticks |
ta! |
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| Kirstie |
That will be the reason that Defra have written to me to ask how many poultry I have, what they are used for, where they are kept, how they are kept and how many houses I have for them. Am somewhat reluctant to fill in the form as will this mean they come and cull my birds if they start to get itchy feet over avian flu, having been through F&M I don't want to see this happen to my birds. I am however willing to stop all my birds being free range and house them all in the granary loft with artificial ponds etc if this would make a difference, no bird wild or otherwise would be able to get into this so hopefully from what has been said the avian flu would not be transmitted. I have also stopped rescuing or buying in poultry until this has blown over completely. | ||||
| richard333 |
All you want to know about bird flu at the UK Govt websiteJust in case nobody has mentioned this link already ... the reports etc were posted on 19th October.http://www.dh.gov.uk/PolicyAndGuidance/EmergencyPlanning/PandemicFlu/fs/en |
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| tahir |
Radio 4 Monday 21:00 Nature
Bird Flu Special Brett Westwood presents a special edition of Nature from Slimbridge. With invited guests from the world of natural history and conservation and surrounded by the hubub of newly arriving migrant wildfowl, Westwood presents listeners' questions about bird flu and it's relationship to our wildlife and us. [Rptd Tue 11.00am] |
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| High Green Farm |
A friend of ours does the books for a local rare breed chicken breeder, who also makes chicken houses.
He has gone from having an order book that he was struggling to keep up with to an empty one. Many people have cancelled their orders, and none are being placed.
So chicken keeping has gone from the most popular emerging hobby to this and all due to speculation. 
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| Nanny |
i think a lot of people are waiting to see what happens.
it seems foolish to invest in birds and houses if DEFRA are going to come along and all your birds i don't think it's because people are frightened they will get bird flu so much |
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| dougal |
" Bird flu virus 'resisting drug' "
http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/health/4545606.stm  Don't they read Downsizer?
http://forum.downsizer.net/viewtopic.php?p=102723#102723 Its actually a new study, confirming the earlier one. So, see what you can get on eBay for your Tamiflu stockpile, and give away the Star Anise as Christmas presents... In truth, its way too early to tell whether Tamiflu might be any use. The Bird flu that crossed Asia this summer, and is seen in the Black Sea and Balkans (and likely is now in Africa), would seem to be sensitive (ie NOT resistant) to the older, cheaper drugs - Amantadines. (But the reason Tamiflu was being used in Vietnam is that their local version of H5N1 **is** amantadine resistant.) |
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| saffranne |
does everyone who keeps poultry have to register or is it just the farmers and people who keeps poultry for commercial purpose? |