| Archive for Downsizer For an ethical approach to consumption |
| towerhill |
Climate change - BBC radio 4 - World at OneVery interesting article on the World at One on Radio4 today.http://www.bbc.co.uk/programmes/b006qptc It looks like we'll be growing melons and olives pretty soon. |
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| James |
The article was in responce to today's release of the UK climate prediction report 2009 (UKCP09).
Very interesting report to read (the highlights of...). Here are the maps of probable change in precipitation and temperature across the UK and documented highlights of regional change A best case scenario suggests that by 2080, Yorkshire summers will be 3.3c hotter, with a reduction in precipitation by 22%, while the winters will be 2.9c hotter with an increase in preciptition by 15%. warm wet winters, hot dry summers. |
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| orangepippin |
That makes climate change sound like a good thing then? We have stayed on holiday near Alencon / Le Mans for a few years and I have their weather alongside the local York weather on my Google account, so I check it most days. On average their temperatures seem to be 3degrees above ours for most of the year - so similar to these predictions for Yorkshire in 2080. They also seem to harvest their wheat about a month before the farmers here do. It just makes you realise that climate change is not all bad, some areas will benefit. It sounds like we won't be able to go shopping in Hull though. |
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| yummersetter |
Time to plant mangoes yet? | ||||
| tahir |
Nope, but kiwis, persimmons, peaches, nectarines, apricots, figs, loquats, maybe avocadoes... |
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| James |
The problem isnt so much the average increase in temperature as stated above. Instead, these are the concerns: 1) the precipitation will be more erratic and the proportion associated with big storms will increase. This means more flooding, significant river ecology stress, lower water quality and less groundwater recharge. On average, river flows will be much lower, but the recharge to groundwater will also be less. So where will we get our water from? 2) The variability in the temperature will increase the stress on both the natural and the built environment. By 2050, London is expected to regularly exceed 40c during summer. This will make the underground almost un-useable. 3) If york's weather is going to be like France, France will be like Spain, Spain will be like Africa and Africa will end up totally un-inhabitable. Where are these people going to go? Welcome to fortress Europe (...and fortress UK). 4) Much of our productive land is close to sea level. Some of this land will be lost to the sea and much of the remaining land may reduce in productivity due to saline intrusion. So...more people, less food, less water, less infrastructure. |
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| orangepippin |
I think you are too influenced by the norms of the temperate maritime climate we currently experience in the UK, which basically is a bit of everything and no excesses. In an international context though, our mild climate is probably the exception, and for many people what we would call extreme or erratic weather is the norm. It seems to me that the main issue is the possible rise in sea-level - hence my earlier comment about not being able to go shopping in Hull. It is also flooding from rising sea-levels, not temperatures, that are likely to stop the London Underground. |
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| James |
I think your right about sea level rise. Perhaps it will be the thing that finishes off the tube, rather than temperature. In reality, its two sides of the same coin.
I'm a little confused by your comment regarding how other countries may regard erratic weather as the norm. Do you really think that Spain wont loose more land to desertification and the encroachment of Sarah(both north and south) and repeated failures of rains in tropical Africa (resulting in massive reductions in the flow of the Congo) isnt going to significantly reduce the carrying capacity of of these lands? And do you think that these events (happening now, let alone in 50 years time) are not related to climate change? What is going to happen then? |
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| orangepippin |
I meant that viewed from the perspective of someone in the UK, other climate zones all seem more severe. What we might think of as extreme precipitation (June 2 years ago) is unusual here, but not unusual in many other climates. The snow we had this winter was unusual here, but the norm elsewhere. I think the real problem here in the UK is not going to be more "extreme" weather, but flooding. |
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| James |
I think I understand you. You’re differentiating between the event and the consequence...? So extreme weather caused heavy rains in June 2007, but it was the flooding that caused the damaged to Toll Bar? In other countries that are more use to such events, it may not have caused such damage…
I’d say that’s splitting hairs myself. The way the UK infrastructure is set up, and the density of the population, there will always be an impact. I very much doubt we can do much about it. And the countries that are use to extreme weather will get more extreme weather that they’re not prepared for Regardless of this, we will have more erratic weather patterns putting greater stress on the environment and on infrastructure (whether it’s by flood, drought, or sea encroachment). In places that are barely clinging to life now (such as the Sahel), people will just up sticks and leave, going to places that still have an environment fit to live in (northern Europe), putting further stress on these locations. |