| Archive for Downsizer For an ethical approach to consumption |
| Treacodactyl |
Falling UK house prices?For the first time in ages there seems to be more reports suggesting UK house prices are falling or rises are at least slowing. The latest is here: http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/business/7091469.stmNow with the interest rates higher than they've been for a while and inflation creeping back up they're probably not going to fall much soon are we in for big falls, stagnation or rises in the new year? Does anyone have any insight into what might happen? |
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| Northern_Lad |
Hang on, I need a raven, a sparrow and two newts - I shall then read their internal organs and be as accurate as most forecasts. | ||
| boisdevie1 |
Inflation going up means that people will have less money available for mortgages and other forms of debt which suggests that house prices will fall.
Also in the past the government has used interest rates as a way of trying to keep inflation to set targets. Which kind of implies that a rise in rates might be in the pipeline. BUT, a lof of the inflation is due to a lack of supply, not too much demand so it might not happen like that. Gosh, I knew that A level in economics would come in handy one day. |
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| Cho-ku-ri |
As long as the BofE sees it that way. |
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| Gervase |
I wish. If prices were to fall - or even stabilise for a few years - it might stop people using property as just another tradeable commodity and see them putting time effort and money into improving the existing housing stock rather than trading up from one tacky box to a slightly bigger tacky box with more room for cars.
One of the joys of leaving the South East was realising that I would never again have to listen to Mondeo Man and his gormless mates proving that willy-waving about house prices and mortgages does not make for scintillating conversation. |
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| Treacodactyl |
I don't think house price inflation it taken into account when measuring the headline inflation rate, the CPI. I think many people expect interest rates to go down rather than up due to the credit crunch as well. |
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| Treacodactyl |
It would certainly be easier to plan ahead if house prices were more stable. Although I don't have a Mondeo and I think I'm rather choosy to who I wave my willy at I don't think you can get away from wondering about house prices especially if you're planning on moving to somewhere larger. |
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| Fee |
We've just bought a Mondeo 
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| Fee |
Oh, and I haven't got a willy, but if I did, I might wave it *snigger* | ||
| oldish chris |
I've had one for 8 years now! But I don't have a mortgage. Politeness forbids any reference to waving. Apparently, there are so many "Buy-to-Lets" that rental income is becoming depressed, therefore the only reason to hang onto a BTL property is the capital gain (learnt that off BBC somewhere). The danger of loosing the gain made so far, could prompt lots of BTLers selling up, "depressing" the market further. Contrarywise, lots of new peoples (with E. European accents), lots of work (building Olympic Villages et cetera) no sign of a recession means that any fall won't be too far. My bet is on small fall followed by stagnation. So Treacodactyl - you thinking of moving? |
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| Treacodactyl |
I've been planning to move for a few years, from Surrey to Devon or Cornwall. The aim to to buy a smallholding or farm but it will probably be best to buy a small property to move down to, then sell our current house while looking around for the smallholding. So house prices are rather important to me at the moment.
I've also read about the possible bursting of the buy-to-let bubble and that, coupled with the change to capital gains tax next April might be good news for us as that'll be the type of property we might be looking for. |
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| Chez |
Apocryphally; one of the reasons that our move fell through was that this house was valued at £10K less than we paid for it last July, which is approximately 4%.
Also, we have a small buy to let that we are looking to shift and it's been on the market since Easter with very little interest. |
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| lottie |
We sold our house to someone who pretended they wanted it for themselves but really saw it as an investment opportunity---I'm happy-- we just wanted shut---looking at the pictures on the web he's spent a fortune internally--now 3 state of the art bathrooms instead of 2 tatty ones kitchen to die for,even new stairs etc etc---but it was already the dearest house on the road even in it's untarted up state so he's not so much sharp as daft ---he'll be doing it on borrowing---already reduced his exorbitant asking price twice---with the latest news he must be sick as a parrot. There must be other developers in the same boat if prices are dipping. | ||
| Contadino |
There is such high demand for housing in the UK that I doubt that there will be a significant 'crash' (although, just a drop of 3% on a UK house price is a big wad nowadays.) Prices may drop a little (percentage-wise), stagnate, and then rise again. | ||
| Cho-ku-ri |
Just supposing property prices halved to what some regard as their true value, who would it affect? Obviously those who stand to inherit a house, but it could save £££££ in inheritance tax. For those who have already bought and you have budgeted correctly you should still be able to pay your mortgage, although I agree it would be sickening. If you are planning on upsizing, your new property will be much cheaper, so I don't think many will be too badly affected. Just on paper we may all be less rich than we thought. So what? At least nurses and key workers may have a chance to own a home near their work. 
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| Treacodactyl |
As if by magic the BoE has suggested rates could fall by 0.5% in the next year. http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/business/7094208.stm Of course just because the base rate falls the various providers don't have to cut their rates and I expect many will not so they can recoup some of their recent losses. |
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| Treacodactyl |
That's roughly my thinking, a small down turn, a bit of stagnation then a steady rise again. Other problems seem to be a lack of people to build new houses, compounded by the amount of workers all the new Olympic building work will absorb over the next few years. |
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| mark |
what happens when house prices fall!
- i suspect we will see a marginal fall (prices rising by less than the inflation rate) and not a crash. If you are an investor it may be worth waiting a bit to see what happens before you buy. but in most areas the housing market will simply slow right down sellers not willing to drop their price cos it aint worth them moving if they can't get a decent price clear their mortgage and have enough deposit for new house and pay legal and removal costs (and the new packs) - but buyers not willing to pay the asking price! Not good news for anyone who really has to move - or has to sell up - as they are likely to be forced to take a steep cut in price. But generally I think we'll just see a sluggish market! I think the exception is flats -there have just been far to many built in proportion to houses in many areas (as developers can sqeeze more profit out of a land purchase than in housebuilding) - I think new built flats will still command a premium but will lose their value very, very quickly when they become "just another second hand flat" especially as the common areas start to look less trendy! I think those who bought new flats to rent out as an investment opportunity may find it there were wiser options. mark |
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| Cho-ku-ri |
New trendy'white rendered and cedar walled flats in Perth centre have copper waste pipes that have already left long green streaks down the white walls and have given that 'shanty town' look already. |