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Andy B

Is this the start?

Of serious trouble ahead. We have hit a worldwide credit crunch at a time when serious spending should be taking place to save the world from an environmental meltdown. Climate change predictions, that were expected to take effect much later in this century, look like they could happen much sooner, some predict within just a few years. We have spent a long time talking about this problem and now, just as some in power are begining to wake up to the problem, though probably still too late and with nowhere near enough haste, we have talk of governments using the credit crunch as a reason to do nothing yet again.
Chez

It *is* a bit like living in some apocalyptic SF novel, isn't it? I'm not sure that the will is there politically to do anything to actually 'solve' the problem of climate change, credit-crunch or not. All government is interested in doing is getting themselves back in power when their term is up, so their view is necessarily short-term.

I think that the best we can hope for is that the reactive measures that seem to be all government is capable of are enough to make the changes that are coming slightly cushioned. I've always been a bit of a survivalist at heart - and making sure that we as a family have an independent water supply, something to heat us and cook on and the ability to produce our own food is all that we can do. And even then, if things get really bad, someone bigger and stronger than us will probably take that away.

Fiddling whilst Rome burns.
Jonnyboy

Isn't a recession good for the environment?

Less manufacturing, less travel, less activity = less fossil fuels burnt.
bloke off the telly

Quote:
Isn't a recession good for the environment?
its definitely got some good points but I fear the opposite will happen for example around here the council has basically stopped recycling and is storing recyclable rubbish as the bottom has dropped out of the recycle market, and soon they will have nowhere to store it, specially with Xmas approaching, and all the card, paper etc that goes with it
Also people will shop at the cheaper places (tesco, asda)
for food forgoing farmers markets etc, its already happening at the ones we go to Neutral
Somethings will improve because of it Im sure but Im really a bit worried about the whole thing Laughing
Rob R

I have to admit that when I first heard the word recession, I started thinking of what opportunities it would bring, and focussing the mind on sustainable spending is one we should take advantage of IMHO. I felt that, when times were very good, although people were spending more, that was not proportional (for me) to the rise in the housing market round here.
nettie

[quote="bloke off the telly"]
Quote:

Also people will shop at the cheaper places (tesco, asda)
for food forgoing farmers markets etc, its already happening at the ones we go to Neutral


Same here. same here. I have to use T**cos for bog roll and other basics, it's been rammed the last couple of times I've been. I suppose it saves petrol for people to get all their provisions in one go. The farmer's markets have been deathly quiet. It's really sad Sad
Brownbear

The only thing that can save the environment is a really good big plague, ideally one to which downsizers are immune. There are just too many people for the resources we have.
vegplot

Brownbear wrote:
The only thing that can save the environment is a really good big plague, ideally one to which downsizers are immune. There are just too many people for the resources we have.


That, my friend, is about the long and short of it.
hamster

Yes, but then people are also walking or using public transport more, passenger numbers at Stansted are down, energy companies are offering deals on insulation, people are buying fewer consumer goods, fewer houses are being built... I think it's in many ways an issue of how it's presented - the powers that be and the mainstream media have always presented environmentalism and sustainability as essentially a middle-class luxury, rather than an opportunity for social justice or a viable life choice for everybody, as heaven forbid we stop consuming or demand serious changes to the status quo. So the stories about the credit crunch and the environment are all in the vein of, 'Economic crisis means people can't afford to buy organic food!!' with undertones of, 'Told you it'd never work,' and things such as not being able to run a car or the downturn in the housing market are portrayed as Very Bad Things. Indeed, it is awful that people are being forced into doing these things rather than choosing them freely, but purely in terms of how things are framed, I think there is an opportunity for change that is being missed.
James

To be honest, I think environmental concerns are going to go straight out of the window when push comes to shuv. And whilst a drop in production may have an benefit, this’ll be far outweighed by requirements for cheep, dirty energy and lack of environmental risk management by industry. I’ve already noticed that environmental clean-ups of contaminated land has just stopped overnight.

I think what is likely to happen is that we'll have a severe recession throughout 2009 and into 2010, maybe (hopefully) things'll start to pick up, but they will never return to the high point of a couple of years ago. We'll sit there for a few years, and then there'll be another recession brought about by the increase in fuel costs- we’ll be way passed peak oil by then. This time, the low will be lower than the 2009 low and the high following it will be lower than. This pattern will repeat cyclically, each low being lower than the preciding one and each high being less than the previous.

As cash and energy (& therefore food) become more scarce, social unrest in the developing world will become more common, as will large scale migration.

Given this, and the backdrop of economic hardship, I think its highly likely that there will be significant swing to right wing politics over the next few decades (fortress UK, if not fortress Europe).

When discussing this with a friend, we wondered how the supermarkets would evolve. “Asda will be selling the cheap shotguns” he decided.
Rob R

I'm with hamster, I've never held with the view that sustainable food is a middle class fad any more than I think only working class people eat rubbish.
marigold

watch with interest
do your best to behave well
remember that the worst that can happen is that you die
and you are going to do that anyway Wink
orangepippin

Humanity has survived crises on this scale many times. We killed off all the mammoths, so we became farmers. We ran out of land, so learnt irrigation and reclamation. We ran out of horse power so we invented the steam engine. When we run out of oil we will find something else. In a historical context this whole "peak oil" thing is nonsense.

As for the environmental impact of the recession, I reckon that it will be beneficial on balance. As others have said, the recession means less demand for oil, building materials and so on. No more eco-towns hopefully.
sean

marigold wrote:
watch with interest
do your best to behave well
remember that the worst that can happen is that you die
and you are going to do that anyway Wink


Have you suddenly become dpack?
Mrs Fiddlesticks

marigold wrote:
watch with interest
do your best to behave well
remember that the worst that can happen is that you die
and you are going to do that anyway Wink


have you taken tea with dpack? Laughing (I agree with you by the way!)
James

orangepippin wrote:
In a historical context this whole "peak oil" thing is nonsense.


True. And in a geological context, this whole humanity thing is nonsense

But its very relevant now.

The reason its relevant is that 80% of the energy in our food is derived from oil. Take that away, and 80% of the global population has trouble eating. That’s not nonsense.

I think its likely that our government will make damn sure we're aren't part of that 80% by out-bidding for diminishing food. This'll probably mean more wars and less people.

It'll even itself out in a few generations. when our population is back to a manageable level (...probably via war, starvation and plagues).
marigold

sean wrote:

Have you suddenly become dpack?


Mrs Fiddlesticks wrote:

have you taken tea with dpack? Laughing (I agree with you by the way!)


A feeble imitation of the master, but his writing style seemed appropriate for my current feelings on this subject Very Happy .
dpack

sean wrote:
marigold wrote:
watch with interest
do your best to behave well
remember that the worst that can happen is that you die
and you are going to do that anyway Wink


Have you suddenly become dpack?

Laughing
nuff said Laughing
Chez

A good war would put a stop to all this recession stuff.
hamster

Chez wrote:
A good war would put a stop to all this recession stuff.


At one point a few weeks ago I was half-expecting Gordon Brown to declare war on Iceland.
Chez

Have you seen the film 'Wag the Dog'? Very funny - and almost painful in some of it's accidental truths.
Rob R

dpack wrote:
sean wrote:
marigold wrote:
watch with interest
do your best to behave well
remember that the worst that can happen is that you die
and you are going to do that anyway Wink


Have you suddenly become dpack?

Laughing
nuff said Laughing


Funny, that was my first thought too Laughing
orangepippin

James wrote:

It'll even itself out in a few generations. when our population is back to a manageable level (...probably via war, starvation and plagues).

I agree that population - not oil - is the real issue. However apart from the Chinese, no government seems to be doing much about it.
mochyn

Rob R wrote:
dpack wrote:
sean wrote:
marigold wrote:
watch with interest
do your best to behave well
remember that the worst that can happen is that you die
and you are going to do that anyway Wink


Have you suddenly become dpack?

Laughing
nuff said Laughing


Funny, that was my first thought too Laughing


And mine. Oh dear: are we all turning into dpack clones?
vegplot

methinks,not
Penny

We could be a lot worse Very Happy
Blue Peter

Chez wrote:
A good war would put a stop to all this recession stuff.


I'm not sure that we (or realistically the US) could afford a war. WW2 provided a way for extracting the natural resources of the US; I am not sure that there is anywhere from whence we can extract such resources now,


Peter.
vegplot

Blue Peter wrote:
Chez wrote:
A good war would put a stop to all this recession stuff.


I'm not sure that we (or realistically the US) could afford a war. WW2 provided a way for extracting the natural resources of the US; I am not sure that there is anywhere from whence we can extract such resources now,

Peter.


Return of the Longbow.
Drewsephine

Chez wrote:
A good war would put a stop to all this recession stuff.


Dont say things like that ! I may have to do some work and nobody wants to see that happen

Laughing
James

orangepippin wrote:
James wrote:

It'll even itself out in a few generations. when our population is back to a manageable level (...probably via war, starvation and plagues).

I agree that population - not oil - is the real issue. However apart from the Chinese, no government seems to be doing much about it.


Thats very true. The root problem is population. The solution is population control. If we dont reduce our population in a managed way, it'll happen in a disorderly, messy, way. Either way, the population will decline.
The only people doing anything close to whats required are the Chinese.
boisdevie1

Too many people, not enough resources. We're dependant on oil and when that begins to run out people will starve. In their millions.
vegplot

boisdevie1 wrote:
Too many people, not enough resources. We're dependant on oil and when that begins to run out people will starve. In their millions.


People are already starving in their millions, the problem is likley to get worse.
marigold

boisdevie1 wrote:
Too many people, not enough resources. We're dependant on oil and when that begins to run out people will starve. In their millions.


People already do starve in their millions. http://www.geni.org/globalenergy/issues/global/qualityoflife/hunger/index.shtml
Andy B

Jonnyboy wrote:
Isn't a recession good for the environment?

Less manufacturing, less travel, less activity = less fossil fuels
burnt.


The problem, i think is that the cut backs in emisions needed would be more like the equivalent of a severe economic crash than just a recession. Recession will ease the pressure a bit but it will hardly register against needed cuts. But governments see the measure of succes as economic growth and they will put all the resources to that end, they dont seem to see green technology as a growth area. We need a huge investment in alternative energies, yesterday and where is that investment comming from?
lily

What can you name in your home that did not in some way get there because of oil. I cannot name a single item, not even the bricks and mortar.
orangepippin

Imagine you were living 500 years ago, and ask yourself the same question ...
vegplot

orangepippin wrote:
Imagine you were living 500 years ago, and ask yourself the same question ...


Back to the tallow and whale oil Wink
Simon

marigold wrote:
watch with interest
do your best to behave well
remember that the worst that can happen is that you die
and you are going to do that anyway Wink


What Marigold said ^

This thing happens every twenty years or so and it is always the end of the world at the time. Never happened tho'

We are a bored species, just waiting for something amazing to turn up ...
Behemoth

James wrote:
To be honest, I think environmental concerns are going to go straight out of the window when push comes to shuv. And whilst a drop in production may have an benefit, this’ll be far outweighed by requirements for cheep, dirty energy and lack of environmental risk management by industry. I’ve already noticed that environmental clean-ups of contaminated land has just stopped overnight. .


Had a meeting today about the price setting process for water bill in 2010-15. One of the issues was that all the customer research about what customers are willing to pay for is about 18 months old. Proposed investment generally needs to have customer support. Ask the same questions now and you'd get different answers.
James

just received this email from a friend of mine who's been proved quite on the nail so far about what to expect:
my mate, Steve wrote:

Hi James

What Brown and other Western leaders are advocating is maddness. It is predicated on the assumption that future growth will soak up all of the new money they are bringing into existence in the form of an expanded economy/raised tax revenue. However, as soon as we try to grow again in, say, a couple of years, we will once again hit the buffers of resource constraints. At that point, the price of essential commodities, in particular energy, will hit the roof again due to an expanded money supply chasing a dininishing/static supply of goods and/or services.

We are in the process of monetizing all of the nasty debt that the institutional lenders have on their books. At the moment, this money is sat in their accounts. However, at some point it will start to look for a new home to go to in order to do some work for them. they will certainly not be lending it to us since we will not be able to repay. So, the only place it can go to is the commodity markets. In particular, the essential commodity markets since they will be the only safe investment left in town. At which point we have a situation where an avalanche of money is chasing a shrinking supply of commodities. This, again will do only one thing to the price.

So, massive deflation for now as the current debts unwind. Massive inflationary driven price rises a couple of years from now. However, our wages wont be rising to meet the new prices. So, in order to afford them, we will be sharply cutting back on all but the essentials. Sounds familiar? a re-run of the stagflation of the 70s, only much much worse than anything we experienced back then.In short, we get to bail out the large institutional lenders. We also get to pay for the privilige by paying higher prices for goods and services. Prices that will have been driven up by our bailout money.......

That's nice

The outcome of the above will inevitably be another deflationary collapse. Another period of "recovery". Another failed attempt to regrow........repeated, all the way to the bottom.

Regarding the current state of the housing market, they have got a lot further to fall yet. They are initially falling as a result of the deflationary credit phase we are going through at the moment. However, I don't think the stagflation to come will significantly halt the fall as I would place houses under the category of non-essential commodities since you can possess one without actually having to own one in the form of a mortgage debt. I could be wrong on this final point and the falls may be slowed or halted when the inflationary pressures hit in a year or so. One final point to note on house prices is the current levels of falls that are being reported. Utter bullshit. Savilles, the biggest auctioneers of houses are regularly showing showing falls of 50% when people are actually forced to sell. In other words, in the real market out there where actual transactions are taking place, the carnage is already evident. If unemployment kicks in big next year, we should expect these kind of falls to hit the market as a whole. It's worth remembering that it has taken us only just over a year to reach a point in the market that took over 5 years to reach in the early 90s.

As for land. I, like you, am now utterly convinced of the need to purchase it in the next decade. Again, like you, I am probably thinking Europe because of the logistics involving family. Prices are curently falling in much of Europe and so there is a window of opportunity forming in this regard.
Penny

That's a really insightful comment, and very similar to our views on the situation. Sad
Rob R

Behemoth wrote:
James wrote:
To be honest, I think environmental concerns are going to go straight out of the window when push comes to shuv. And whilst a drop in production may have an benefit, this’ll be far outweighed by requirements for cheep, dirty energy and lack of environmental risk management by industry. I’ve already noticed that environmental clean-ups of contaminated land has just stopped overnight. .


Had a meeting today about the price setting process for water bill in 2010-15. One of the issues was that all the customer research about what customers are willing to pay for is about 18 months old. Proposed investment generally needs to have customer support. Ask the same questions now and you'd get different answers.


Yes, can I have our survey back, I want to change the answers Wink
vegplot

"hit the buffers of resource constraints"

Couldn't agree more. We've lived too long on the premise that resources are unlimited.
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