| Archive for Downsizer For an ethical approach to consumption |
| welshboy454 |
Oil Supplies Forecasts by International Energy AgencyThe next 10 years will see current crude oil production fall from 70m barrels a day to 40m a day. A reduction approaching 50%.The optimism is that it will be replaced by yet to be developed/found oil 
http://www.guardian.co.uk/environment/2009/nov/09/peak-oil-international-energy-agency Time to plant some more biomass ! 
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| vegplot |
any drop in oil production is going to cause all sorts of problems even a few % points is likely to trigger worldwide crisis. If the prediction is for a 50% drop in 10 years then perhaps the Mayans may have had something in their 2012 prediction. |
| James |
this really isnt that supprising. If you read Jeremy Legget's book "Half Gone" it becomes clear that all the large producer's have been over hyping their known reserves since the mid 1980's, Saudi Arabia has been totally silent regarding their reserves for some time (and havent opened any new fields for some time), the engineers have found ways of getting more out of the existing holes and doing so faster (resulting in a steeper drop off in production when the wells start drying up), and the IEA has been accused in the past of being in the pocket of the oil companies (particularly TEXACO)
What's surprising is that there's still an increadible lack of acceptance of our situation. We're hurtling towards a brick wall and seem powerless to change anything. The big elephant in the room is not energy, its population. Its something that politician dont want to talk about. Even if we make massive energy eficiency savings, the population is far to high. Effectively at the momment, our huge population is being shawed up by fossil fuels- we are concentrating carbon into us. Get rid of fossil fuels and a huge proportion of the population goes. About 10 years ago, I read in an OU text that the carrying capacity of the globe was probably 20% of the (then) population. Even if we assume loads of high tech stuff will aid our decline, and if we assume that we're happy living in a lower energy lifestyle, this probably (imo) still means our population is still way to high. Then the next big question is : how will the population decline to match our energy? the curve on the graph posted above shows a rapid decine. Can our population adjust as quickly in an orderly way? I doubt it. I think it'll be far from orderly. |
| boisdevie1 |
I agree with James. In the last 100 years we have had massive increases in food supply thanks to petroleum. When it runs out we are going to have BIG problems. None of the mainstream political parties seem able or willing to accept this and prepare. Perhaps because most people think that somehow everything will be OK. I't a big like the Ocean Finance ad - are you f""cked financially - well take out another loan to put all your stupid loans in one loan - and have enough for that shiny car/ride on mower/holiday. Well one day quite soon the poop will hit the fan. The UK produces what, 60 percent of its own food. When the oil runs out what then? |