| Archive for Downsizer For an ethical approach to consumption |
| Treacodactyl |
UK house prices see sharp tumblehttp://newsvote.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/business/7118336.stm
I know it's just one months numbers and some of the previous reports have showed a more subtle cooling but something to watch if you're in the process or buying or selling. |
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| Behemoth |
Land registry info:
"London house prices fall as market in England and Wales remains flat London house prices experienced a greater fall than any other region in October, according to the latest monthly figures from Land Registry. October's House Price Index shows that prices in London fell 0.6 per cent, while the market in England and Wales as a whole demonstrated a slight increase of 0.1 per cent. The average house price for England and Wales now stands at £184,346; in London the figure is £351,039. For more information and to view the latest statistical release visit http://www.landregistry.gov.uk/houseprices" |
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| jema |
I think it is long overdue, okay there is a major supply and demand issue pushing on prices, but there is a point at which you wonder how can it be feasable for anyone to get on the housing ladder, and in a large part of the Country we seem to have got well beyond that point. | ||||||
| marigold |
0.8% a sharp tumble??? WTF would they call an 8% drop? Or an 18% drop?
You had me all excited for a moment there  .
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| Behemoth |
I've just had a look at the profile by property type for West Yorkshire. it shows that prices are continuing to rise for family homes (lack of supply), is slowing for terraces (many small ones over priced) and is falling for flats (oversupplied). | ||||||
| Treacodactyl |
That's 0.8% in a month so about 10% annualised although who knows what's going to happen next month. My guess is things are going to be volatile over the next few months. |
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| bingo |
I would welcome a slump in prices, we sold our flat a year ago and are in rented for the time being. | ||||||
| dougal |
Entirely apart from any individual's personal considerations, it would appear that the 'economic consensus' is that it would be a very bold move to plan on the basis of house prices continuing to rise at recent rates.
There's a nasty bit of economic tightrope walking ahead. Cut interest rates and the currency value falls, making all imports - and that includes energy, more expensive. Rising inflation and falling real asset values is not a happy prospect. |
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| Andy B |
I understands there are over 100 thousand empty properties in the UK. |
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| JB |
In the parts of the country where people want to live? It's not much use to someone struggling to pay a mortgage on a flat in the home counties to know that they could buy a detached house in Lanark. |
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| Andy B |
I understand that its a fairly even distribution across the whole of the UK, but mostly centered in and around the big cities. Who exactly are all these people needing new homes when birth rates in the UK have been dropping for a number of years, to only very recently to have marginally increased. In other words we have a static population, even taking into account people living longer, but we need hundreds of thousands of new homes. For who exactly!? |
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| JB |
UK population may double by 2081 The main driving factors are fertility, longevity and immigration. |
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| Andy B |
I notice the 4 million extras over 75 years if Birth rates stay pretty much the same and immigration is properly controled. And as the later has become such a political hot potato i suspect it will. I suspect this is another of the many scare stories which we will never be able to prove wrong until we have long gone beyong the dates and numbers they mention. |
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| orangepippin |
Regardless of the causes, there is no doubt the government wants to build massive numbers of new houses - here in Yorkshire they say 20K new houses per year starting right away. To put that in perspective, that will be about 1m extra people in the region within 10 years - and the current population is only 5m.
If this house-building happens then clearly the extra supply will bring down the prices for everyone. However I suspect it won't happen because there seems to be no money to pay for the infrastructure (especially roads, and health and care services) necessary for this massive expansion. |
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| Treacodactyl |
Which leads me nicely to this question. It's often mentioned that just increasing the size and number of roads just causes more people to use them and just as much congestion after a few years. Surely the same will happen for housing? The more you build the more people will want them? |
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| orangepippin |
That is a remarkable insight. | ||||||
| Treacodactyl |
As in the obvious or in I'm talking rubbish? |
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| bagpuss |
a very interesting piece from monbiot about the housing problems
We build 3 million homes - or leave these families in Dickensian misery a tad emotionally charged but he has a point |
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| orangepippin |
No seriously, I think that is brilliant. I like the way it links house-building (which is "good") with road-building (which is "bad") and thereby undermines accepted policy on road-building whilst simultaneously undermining the rush to house-building. And it works the other way too ... if we need more houses (as we surely do) then we must need more roads ... really brilliant. You can take the rest of the day off! |
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| lettucewoman |
the unused housing stock in this country is enough to house all those without housing easily - its one of my personal hobby horses. Houses are allowed to stand empty and become run down all over the country, usually because of disputes, inability to refurbish or just plain greed.
see here www.emptyhomes.com for more information |
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| Blue Peter |
Baron von Treaco, I think that you're wrong on this. Remember, this hasn't been about housing at all really, it has been about loose credit (or banks et al. wanting to make money out of lots of Asian savings). The more credit that is made available, the more people will want to buy houses. Take away the credit and no one will want to buy them, Peter. |
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| dougal |
So, to take JB's example, people will move to Lanark, because the houses are already built? The population trend forecasts reported by the BBC are shown as a graph, which IMHO would be better at the top of the page than the bottom... 
So, stable then slowly declining population would need low birthrate, low immigration and people living a shorter time... so what chance a government closing the borders, shutting down the health service and penalising large families? Not very likely, I'd say. |
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| Nick |
And encouraging people around 20 to stay at home with their parents until they marry, rather than getting a place on their own. | ||||||
| Blue Peter |
I don't think that people are encouraged to stay at home - unless you mean encouraged in the sense that they can't afford to leave. Up until recently, all the mortgage lenders were only too happy to lend, as long as you could fog a mirror, Peter. P.S. What's happened to CAB? |
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| Nick |
I just meant it as a social norm, rather than any policy.
My parents, and theirs before them stayed at home until they married. I left when I could, and I'm planning on throwing my kids out asap. Possibly this weekend. |
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| Treacodactyl |
I'm glad you mentioned birth rate and not fertility like the graph; I thought fertility was actually falling? I don't think anyone would argue that we shouldn't try to increase our life expectancy so that leaves immigration and birth rates. Now I've actually heard people say they'd have more children if they had the room so if you went and gave everyone the size of house they wanted I bet the birth rate would increase. Without wishing to sound too extreme it's also well known that many of the skills for building are met by immigration meaning more houses are needed for the people to build the houses and so on. No I don't think the government can shut the boarders and penalise large families but I also don't think you can just build vast amounts of houses without tackling other issues. |
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| Andy B |
The world cant move to the UK, so we should be doing more to make the places these imigrants come from places that can give them a better standard of living so they can stay at home. I actually think in the long term this will happen and we will get to a situation where more people leave than come in. This place is too expensive to live in and manufacture much. | ||||||
| orangepippin |
Whilst still being one of the strongest economies in europe, the UK also has one of the highest population densities (before the current immigration round), the most congested roads, and a struggling healthcare system. Also arguably the most miserable summer weather as well! | ||||||
| Windymiller |
My thoughts exactly. If Africa was managed better, the Africans and Europeans would be a great deal better off. |
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| Bebo |
[quote="Treacodactyl"]I don't think anyone would argue that we shouldn't try to increase our life expectancy [quote]
I might. It depends on quality of life. I've seen my mum's quality of life over the last 13 years (she had a stroke at 63) and the way my dad is now with COPD and dementia. I can honestly say that I would rather live well and actively to 70 and then peg it of a heart attack rather than last until 90 and spend my last 20 years unable to even wipe my own arse. |
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| RoryD |
Agree muchly. We need the difficult moral discussion on spending more making peoples 70's more enjoyable, and then not ploughing monies into maintaining a shocking quality of life in ones 90's. |
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| wellington womble |
Then I'm afraid you must take all the boring healthy lifestyle advice (you know - limit booze, no smoking, plenty of exercise and healthy fruit and veg, low animal fat diet) People who do all of things tend to peg out quickly with no expensive lingering, which is why cynics like me think it's government policy to push healthy living. | ||||||
| Bebo |
Nah, don't agree with all that old rubbish. People who don't drink, exercise regularly, have llow fat diets etc etc don't actually live longer, it just feels like it 'cos it's so b-o-o-o-o-o-ring | ||||||
| Armchair |
I agree with Monbiot on a lot of things but the examples he gives of people living in cramped conditions don't elicit much sympathy from me. Wendy Castle, for example, had one child when she was given a two bedroom flat. She then decided to have another child. And then another. And then another. Then she complains that her flat is too small. Aisha and Abdul have also opted to fill their two bedroom flat with four children. No wonder they are cramped. It does raise an issue of the type of social housing that is available and we are building (mainly flats and small houses unsuitable for families, and the new ones tend to be on shared ownership/equity schemes) while the larger family homes are left to the open market but sometimes people really need to take a look at themselves. |
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| Treacodactyl |
And the latest Halifax survey shows a 1.1% monthly drop for November. http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/business/7128308.stm
Added to yesterdays FSA warning that "Lenders 'must prepare for worst'" it looks like prices might fall by a fair bit in the next few months. http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/business/7127534.stm |