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sprinter
Joined: 07 Aug 2005
Posts: 42
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 Posted: Sun Aug 28, 05 6:58 am Post subject: |
 
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| cab wrote: |
Sprinter... Be hysterical about this. Be hysterical about influenza pandemics all the time. We will see another, and it will kill untold millions.
We know enough about influenza to be sure taht this is how it gets into human populations; we don't know whether this one may be one of those that becomes a major killer, but it's very, very important that we do everything we can to reduce that possibility.
The result of not doing so is that billions of people might die. And looking back to the pandemic after the first world war, that one was a particularly nasty one, it killed without distinction across age groups, it didn't go for the economically inactive (the old, sick and very young) it went for everyone; I may sound cruel here, but the economic impact of a virus more deadly than HIV, more infectious than HIV and killing the same demographic as HIV would be MUCH worse than that virus, which has already brought social and economic ruin to parts of sub-Saharan Africa.
Oops, getting all preachy. Didn't mean to come out that way. |
This is one of your original quotes Cab.
I consider this to be scaremongering.
There are just too many contradictions in your postings to go through.
I will pick up on the one about the eggs though.
You did say the kids will still have free range eggs and ultimately it will benefit the organic system - How?
If the knee jerk reaction is to move all poultry indoors doesn't this support the battery/barn cage bird lobby?
If a cull is enforced it will destroy it completely and change eating habits and affect the health of the nation.
Read through the postings by the other users.
They are frightened not only for their families but for their lifestyle and their birds.
If your employment is as a viriologist then surely you should be able to provide a balanced view - Being selective in what you read i.e. not anything from the Telegraph - is not being objective. Perhaps if the article had supported your theories then you would link it. I wouldn't take any notice of any professional who refused to look at an alternative viewpoint - why should I? Their resulting conclusions would obviously be biased.
I go into sites such as this all too often and see one or two people, who seem to be able to put forward their viewpoint with the most tenacity, and have a lot of time to do so, putting other people off coming forward.
In most situations, to be quite honest, in the big scheme of things is doesn't really matter. In this one it does.
Where is the reassurance?
This is after all a downsizer site. Where people who think "outside the box" come. Where people who believe in a better standard of living for themselves and a better standard of welfare for their stock.
I thought sites such as this would be able to think above media hype.
What I can't get over is that your intitial presumption of me was that I'd never even eaten home reared pork? This leads me to think that you yourself have only just entered the world of downsizing - that in fact you have very little actual involvement with it. Forgive me if you think I am being presumptious but you started it.
Have you ever considered that in addition to assisting newcomers to the world of downsizing you are also teaching your grannie to suck eggs?
And what you don't know about you either don't comment on or ask a question that has been previously answered. i.e. Why won't there be any meat? - Please read my response relating to the oil situation.
I refer again to your first quoted paragraph "Be Hysterical" - No thanks.
I prefer to be rational, reasonable and look beyond the hype and other peoples forced opinions. I would also like to fight for a lifestyle I firmly believe in.
What I would also add to others reading is that there are many other factors affecting our food chain at the moment. Many adversely affecting intensive farming in particular (Yeah)
This scare, and at the moment it is just that, may affect the one saving grace in the other issues that ARE happening. Oil prices ARE going up. Oil is getting more difficult to extract. It is used in most agricultural production. It is needed to import foods. It is used in packaging. It will affect our supplies.
To cripple our own smaller farming units at the moment could really affect what and how much we eat. |
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sprinter
Joined: 07 Aug 2005
Posts: 42
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| Posted: Sun Aug 28, 05 1:35 pm Post subject: |
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Thanks to those for sending me personal emails but I will not be editing any posts.
The information you provided is interesting but still makes no difference to my debate on the matter. I am presuming that the information contained was to encourage me to subdue or alter my opinion?
I would not under any circumstances, particularly ones where identities, backgrounds etc are anonymous, take one individuals opnions on anything. Neither would I look at a situation without evaluating the "bigger" picture and look further than one interested parties statements.
A professional opinion is worth nothing if there is nothing to measure it against. It is simply that: an opinion. Certainly if that professional pointedly refused to examine any other information or consider any other viewpoint then for me personally, it loses validity in the extreme. It simply becomes a discussion or argument.
My own prediction of what will happen.
The government will use this as an excuse to monitor even more levels of livestock. I expect to see within the next couple of months a few possible cases of "avian flu" highlighted in the press to highten the hysteria.
The public will be manipulated by the fear factor i.e. millions may die if we don't contain all fowl.
You will see the death of organic and free-range poultry - already people are saying they don't want to eat it or be near it. This is coming through on other forums. Even though it clearly states that the people that have caught it are through bird faeces or eating the raw meat.
Battery farming will increase - it makes people feel safer.
Large corporations will be laughing at their increased profits and the government will be thrilled at putting another nail in the coffin of farming/smallholding/rural life.
If you have any true passion or belief in what you are doing you certainly examine all avenues before jumping in with any kind of statement.
Do I believe that avian flu will come to the UK? No. And nothing, but nothing on these boards has driven me to believe otherwise. If it had, I would say so.
Do I know that the journalistic tendancy is to print the negative to sell papers - Yes. This I can state categorically.
Do I know that what they print is selective - Yes. This is also a categoric statement.
Tell you what go to an emminent viriologist and say " What would happen if the virus mutated to human to human transmission".
His response - "It would kill millions". It's true. The next question should be slightly more detailed but that may not make it into print. Not as exciting you see.
Do I believe that a virus, in this or any other form, will probably cause a pandemic one day - Yes. Law of averages really.
We aren't infallable, we aren't indestructable.
Maybe this isn't the forum to discuss this on and provide expert opinion? Maybe there are other forums which would prove more challenging to someone with such expertise? One where we could all go and view the discussions and draw our own conclusions? |
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dougal
Joined: 15 Jan 2005
Posts: 7184
Location: South Kent
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| Posted: Sun Aug 28, 05 3:03 pm Post subject: |
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Here's a guy who's opinion ought to carry considerable weight:
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Recombinomics, Inc. Founder and President, Henry L Niman earned a PhD at the University of Southern California in 1978. His dissertation focused on feline retroviral expression in tumors in domestic cats.
He took a postdoctoral position at Scripps Clinic and Research Foundation where he developed monoclonal antibody technology. He fused monoclonal antibody and synthetic peptide technologies and accepted a staff position at Scripps.
In 1982, he developed the flu monoclonal antibody, which is widely used throughout the pharmaceutical, biotech, and research industries in epitope tagging techniques. He also produced a broad panel of monoclonal antibodies against synthetic peptides of oncogenes and growth factors. These monoclonal antibodies were distributed worldwide to researchers by the National Cancer Institute. The antibodies identified novel related proteins which correlated with clinical parameters.
This technology was used to form ProgenX, a cancer diagnostic company that became Ligand Pharmaceuticals. Dr Niman subsequently identified protein expression patterns at the University of Pittsburgh. More recently, he became interested in infectious diseases while at Harvard Medical School. He then founded Recombinomics and discovered how viruses rapidly evolve. These latest findings are the subject of recent patent filings. |
I think our own individual opinions should be guided by those of such experts in the field.
Those interested in the opinion of Dr Niman and his fellows might care to look at what was posted on his company's website just yesterday, on Saturday:
https://www.recombinomics.com/News/08270502/H5N1_H7N7_Finland.html
To quote the section that is IMHO most relevant:
| Quote: |
Because H5N1 from Asia has a multi-basic HA cleavage site, it more easily infects birds, including wild birds such as mallards. Reasortants are created when the same host is infected with two different viruses and H5N7 arose from H5 and H7N7 infecting the same host. The poly-basic cleavage site in H5N1 from Asia gives it a selective advantage and it will probably replace most of H5 from Europe.
The dual infection can also generate recombinants, which involve a mixing or portions of genes. The H5N1 from Qinghai Lake has acquired sequences from European swine via recombination, and its presence in Europe this year will lead to more dual infections and more recombination.
Co-circulation of H5N1 and H7N7 is particularly dangerous, because H7N7 is efficiently passed from human to human. Thus, H5N1 could acquire sequences allowing efficient human-to-human transmission, and this acquisition could happen in mallard ducks, which are known to be infected with H5... |
From which I take it that *they* think something nasty is coming.
How soon, how nasty and with what economic effects are all perfectly valid subjects for speculation.
But *science* does tend to be about rather more than mere 'gut feeling' opinion...
Last edited by dougal on Sun Aug 28, 05 3:09 pm; edited 1 time in total |
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Treacodactyl
Downsizer Moderator
Joined: 28 Oct 2004
Posts: 25795
Location: Jumping on the bandwagon of opportunism
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dougal
Joined: 15 Jan 2005
Posts: 7184
Location: South Kent
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| Posted: Sun Aug 28, 05 3:51 pm Post subject: |
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| Treacodactyl wrote: |
| I'm a little puzzled why you think bird flu will not arrive in the UK at some point. I agree that migrating birds may not bring it ... |
Frankly TD, I'm surprised that you should doubt that migrating birds would bring it...
There is very recent research (can't find the bbc link - doh!) but its reported here:
https://news.yahoo.com/s/nm/20050822/sc_nm/birdflu_mallards_dc
| Quote: |
Wallensten, Osterhaus and colleagues trapped mallards in Sweden and the Netherlands and tested them for avian flu strains.
"In our influenza A virus surveillance studies in wild birds in northern Europe, we detected numerous influenza A viruses of subtype H5 and H7 in mallards," they wrote.
They found close relatives of all the documented outbreaks of pathogenic avian flu in Europe since 1997 in the birds. They did not find any close relatives of the Asian H5N1 virus in the birds they checked.
Some of the strains they found included H5N2, H5N3, H5N6, H5N9, H7N3, H7N7, and H7N9. |
Mallards carry these viruses. Ducks, Swans and other waterfowl migrate to the UK from Siberia.
In Vietnam 70% of the wildfowl sampled in the Mekong delta were H5N1 positive.
Why would anyone think that these creatures wouldn't carry this specific variant of flu? |
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sprinter
Joined: 07 Aug 2005
Posts: 42
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| Posted: Sun Aug 28, 05 4:09 pm Post subject: |
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Hi,
I also think something nasty is coming if you care to re-read my post. I just don't think this is it. And the reason I don't think this is it, is because this has been going on for how many years now?
The figures given by the media vary but so far we are looking at 120 (ish) victims and 57 (ish) deaths. Don't quite know where (ish) comes into it when we are examining the situation so extensively but there you are.
So, we have a situation that has and will always be a threat? We have a virus that could and possibly will mutate at some point. Where will this occur? - We don't know
What will the effects be? - We don't know
How will it be transmitted i.e, via which species? We don't know
All we can do is what we have always done - monitor and take steps accordingly.
I do thank you for the information on Dr Niman. He doesn't sound the kind of guy to spread hysteria on a bunch of if, but's and maybe's. Certainly not the kind of person that would intimate millions of people in the UK are going to die. Because that's what people are thinking because of media hype. And the people will react accordingly.
Maybe you should ask him exactly when it is coming, what is the likelyhood of the UK poultry industry being affected, what exactly are the statistical numbers involved in it transferring from human to human and exactly how many people in the UK are going to die? OK not exactly because that would be unreasonable - a general percentage would do.
Because I would dearly love to have the answers to these questions. So would many of the UK population. It may scare them - but then they can take precautions. It may reassure them - so they can sleep at night.
Maybe's don't work in these scenarios. People either need specifics or reassurance.
One more thing.
I was of the mistaken belief that this was an open forum for discussion. I was not of the impression that you "had" to follow a particular thinking pattern to participate.
You tell me what we lose as human beings if we are restricted in being able to question any theory?
The difference between education and intellect?
Being given 2 facts and being able to repeat them
Being given 2 facts and using them to make a third.
i.e. Anybody can be a parrot!
I'm sure Dr Niman would agree: Free thinking is what makes the world go forward.
He would want his theories questioned: they cannot be proven unless they are.
He would also, I am sure, admit that there are many varying factors in a scenario, to limit them to one cause and effect would in itself be self-limiting. |
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sprinter
Joined: 07 Aug 2005
Posts: 42
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Treacodactyl
Downsizer Moderator
Joined: 28 Oct 2004
Posts: 25795
Location: Jumping on the bandwagon of opportunism
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Gertie
Joined: 08 Jan 2005
Posts: 1638
Location: Yorkshire
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dougal
Joined: 15 Jan 2005
Posts: 7184
Location: South Kent
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sprinter
Joined: 07 Aug 2005
Posts: 42
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dougal
Joined: 15 Jan 2005
Posts: 7184
Location: South Kent
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| Posted: Sun Aug 28, 05 5:31 pm Post subject: |
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| Treacodactyl wrote: |
| dougal wrote: |
| Frankly TD, I'm surprised that you should doubt that migrating birds would bring it... |
So you think that the Government's advice is wrong when they state:
"Defra officials earlier said the risk of the virus spreading to the UK was very low and that taking the same steps as those recently undertaken in the Netherlands would be "disproportionate"."
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I think there are many other ways for it to enter the country. I notice that people still holiday in the countries where the flu has spread to humans, i.e. Cambodia, Vietnam and Thailand. Before we start thinking about mass culling of wild birds or locking away all our chickens shouldn't we think about global travel? I can just see some wild birds wishing all those dangerous humans could only be culled. |
Two points on that TD.
1/ The current version does NOT spread human-to-human or even human-to-bird. Humans simply aren't "dangerous" that way - yet.
Expect to see travel restrictions like never before once the human-to-human form appears. And Americans cancelling their holidays abroad...
2/ As to the Gov't advice. Its fair to say that the Dutch steps are rather early. And limited to Holland alone, aren't going to make much difference to the world situation. As to the risk of it spreading to the UK being low - well, sadly I think thats wishful thinking, rather than scientific orthodoxy.
If it is H5N1 thats killing Seagulls in Finland (which is on the bird migration routes between Siberia and here) then the bird-killing version could potentially be here by Christmas.
The thing to remember is that there is a double threat
- the current versions (is it 8?) of H5N1 kill poultry, and inhaled from chicken poo are pretty lethal to humans.
- it has very little evolution left to do to get into a form that can spread human-to-human (instead of chicken poo-to-human). And that could cause enormous numbers of human deaths. But until we see what Mother Nature delivers, no one *knows* how lethal that form might be. But the 1918 pandemic only *killed* 3% of the people that caught it.
Inhaled from chicken poo, the lethality looks much higher. |
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Treacodactyl
Downsizer Moderator
Joined: 28 Oct 2004
Posts: 25795
Location: Jumping on the bandwagon of opportunism
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sprinter
Joined: 07 Aug 2005
Posts: 42
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dougal
Joined: 15 Jan 2005
Posts: 7184
Location: South Kent
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| Posted: Sun Aug 28, 05 6:14 pm Post subject: |
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| Treacodactyl wrote: |
| So visitors to the affected countries can enhale the disease... |
I don't think very many non-medical visitors to South East Asia get involved in mucking out on chicken farms.
It takes really close proximity, and even then it doesn't transfer very well. Which is why so few humans have caught it - it its current version.
I can only guess what you get up to on your own hols! 
| Quote: |
| Is it more likely for the disease to mutate in a very large factory flock than in a small one? Or do you need to have humans and chickens mixed together? |
My understanding, and I'm happy to be corrected by a specialist, is that having the virus in a human is a great way to develop a strain of the virus that just loves to be in humans and evolves a way of human-to-human transmission.
Dr Niman adds to this the exchange of features between different strains, co-resident in the same host at the same time. Which we have, now, in wildfowl, in central Asia, and perhaps much closer. The fact that these migrate adds to the risks by carrying the virus over long distances and beyond human control.
Dr Niman is concerned that the virus has already 'picked up' many characteristics needed for human-to-human transmission. (He also rather controversially suspects that human-to-human transmission variants may already exist in China.)
Again, I'm happy for a specialist to put me right, but I think that once in a poultry flock, it will spread rapidly through that flock - killing a high percentage of the flock, quite apart from any culling to stamp out the virus. I don't think that anyone is saying that wretched battery farms have a significant influence on the virus's evolution. |
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