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dpack

Joined: 02 Jul 2005
Posts: 45460
Location: yes

Posted: Sat Jun 03, 23 9:42 am Post subject:

that might explain the sudden flutter of activity in the heart of darkness

niobium is rather hard to find in sufficient concentrations to make mining it practical, if you know where it is, hire a warlord to secure the mining rights for you is the usual business model

about 5 years ago i considered investing in physically held rare earth metals, i would have made a few quid, but gold mining is a little more ethical so i went for a common metal which has the advantage of i can make bling if the price had dropped

Mistress Rose

Joined: 21 Jul 2011
Posts: 15575

Posted: Sun Jun 04, 23 7:23 am Post subject:
There are a number of new technologies being investigated. Very few of them are even at the pilot industrial scale, but some may get there. As you say, there is no point in getting exited about it until it reaches that stage, but funding depends on letting the people who might be willing to invest know about it, so there has to be publicity if it looks possible.

jema
Downsizer Moderator

Joined: 28 Oct 2004
Posts: 28111
Location: escaped from Swindon

Posted: Mon Jun 05, 23 4:32 am Post subject:

I'm content in the belief that lithium and sodium (touch wood) have 95% of transport covered.
All further development is icing on the cake.

160 wh/Kg will be a cheap car able to do 230 miles whilst being a bit heavy. That's LFP now.

250 wh/Kg is a 300 miles car without a weight issue. Batteries with higher density are already in use.

300 wh/Kg is top of the line current available tech and is encroaching on trucking.

500 wh/kg raises range if you want it to diesel levels. No such batteries yet, but there are believable claims.

HGV diesel dies in increments above the 300 mark. Without the costs it is not possible to say much more than that.

Mistress Rose

Joined: 21 Jul 2011
Posts: 15575

Posted: Mon Jun 05, 23 6:31 am Post subject:
Sorry about the long link, but an interesting article. https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2023/jun/03/electric-vehicles-early-adopter-petrol-car-ev-environment-rowan-atkinson?utm_term=647c3675ebe0c45941175ccc6c14332b&utm_campaign=GuardianTodayUK&utm_source=esp&utm_medium=Email&CMP=GTUK_email

tahir

Joined: 28 Oct 2004
Posts: 45420
Location: Essex

Posted: Mon Jun 05, 23 7:57 am Post subject:
I don't know how he comes to the conclusion "Iâ€™m feeling that our honeymoon with electric cars is coming to an end" the production of BEVs is growing exponentially and will do for a while yet. Yes, there'll be a lot of changes but BEVs make sense, but so does much more investment in public transport and car free city centres.

jema
Downsizer Moderator

Joined: 28 Oct 2004
Posts: 28111
Location: escaped from Swindon

Posted: Mon Jun 05, 23 2:37 pm Post subject:

Mistress Rose wrote:

Sorry about the long link, but an interesting article. https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2023/jun/03/electric-vehicles-early-adopter-petrol-car-ev-environment-rowan-atkinson?utm_term=647c3675ebe0c45941175ccc6c14332b&utm_campaign=GuardianTodayUK&utm_source=esp&utm_medium=Email&CMP=GTUK_email

He sounds like a shill for ICE manufacturers. The article is very warped.

dpack

Joined: 02 Jul 2005
Posts: 45460
Location: yes

Posted: Mon Jun 05, 23 5:16 pm Post subject:
i did consider that before i ignored him, as he takes no account of most of the issues or current and developing tech at my most charitable, my opinion of electric bikes is they improved a lot from first gen, maybe his early adopter thing is the issue

jema
Downsizer Moderator

Joined: 28 Oct 2004
Posts: 28111
Location: escaped from Swindon

Posted: Tue Jun 06, 23 6:22 am Post subject:

It makes me wonder, how long will it be before such inept misinformation ceases to have traction?

The debate has not moved on much in the last year, in terms of the BS posted.

The "facts" have materially changed.

The cars for the elite only is debunked by the prices EVs sell for in China, but they don't sell for anywhere near those prices in the west. So the "facts on the ground" are still missing.

Battery facts of course continue to improve, but that's gradual and if people can deny wind turbines work for decades, what's a year more with batteries? We are still a few years away from saying that mass production EV cars are working fine with original batteries at 15 years old.

Infrastructure arguments retain the same mix of validity and total hogwash, that's going to be ongoing for years until we see serious charging rollout in apartment block car parks etc.

The environmental tripe has changed a bit, at least on the EV side of the argument now Cobalt is much reduced. But for half the trolls it's lithium being mined by kids in the Congo!

Perhaps the number of quite so ignorant comments has reduced, but not my much.

Mistress Rose

Joined: 21 Jul 2011
Posts: 15575

Posted: Tue Jun 06, 23 7:22 am Post subject:

I still feel that we haven't reached a final conclusion about a replacement for ICE. At present electric seems the way to go, and may well improve in performance, cost and infrastructure to a point where it is available to all. On the other hand, there are alternative technologies, and I don't think they can be ignored.

There are some valid points in that article; we can't ignore the environmental cost of replacing fairly new vehicles with electric so it makes sense to keep older vehicles running as long as possible. Hydrogen is an alternative to electric, and has some advantages as well as a lot of disadvantages. I am not sure about the synthetic petrol and diesel, but of course both are quite possible, although might not be worth while.

dpack

Joined: 02 Jul 2005
Posts: 45460
Location: yes

Posted: Tue Jun 06, 23 11:28 am Post subject:

the damage from extracting enough minerals for batteries and magnets is minor compared to the damage from securing, extracting and using fossil fuels

minerals can be recycled, so once we have secured them out of the rocks they are available after each use as fairly high grade mixed "ore"

a couple of decades or more too late to make much difference to the probable future but at least it makes the air a bit nicer and i may be over pessimistic at the macro scale, therefore going electric makes sense for vehicles.

-----------------------------------------------

this is a rather revealing anecdote

a car parked outside ran the engine for ten mins, sending fumes through the air bricks and up through the floor
paddington stare ended that

a week later, repeat, tap on window, shock and explaining she was charging the battery of her hybrid car

she has not had a third go, here

well-meaning perhaps, but totally missed the point of leccy in urban

-------------------------------------

hybrids have some good points, much like diesel-electric trains have some good points, all electric is best, but it does require a much greater infrastructure investment for the harvest /transfer/battery tech as well as just getting the advantages of electric drive/breaking energy recapture etc while burning slightly less fossil fuel

---------------------------------------------------

hydrogen is ace, even nasa have problems with it now and again, as for trusting harry at the garage i don't think hydrogen would be a good idea

it would work for things like steel making or feedstock for fertilizer etc(rather than h2 from fossil) and is a decent way to "store" overcapacity from renewable harvesting

tahir

Joined: 28 Oct 2004
Posts: 45420
Location: Essex

Posted: Tue Jun 06, 23 12:22 pm Post subject:

Mistress Rose wrote:

I still feel that we haven't reached a final conclusion about a replacement for ICE.

That's certainly true, and also private car ownsership as a whole. Most younger people in urban areas aren't really interested in driving or owning a car of their own. This is a trend that needs to be encouraged by better planning and public transport.

Rowan Atkinson is a petrolhead with many "supercars" in his garage, I don't think his view is uncoloured on this.

With regards to the new car market, most new cars (regardless of fuel type) are bought not because the old vehicle has failed but for other reasons. I can't see anything changing the buying patterns of people that change their vehicle every 3 years, or those (like Rowan Atkinson) that have many (ridiculously inefficient) vehicles just because they can afford them.

Last edited by tahir on Tue Jun 06, 23 1:07 pm; edited 1 time in total

dpack

Joined: 02 Jul 2005
Posts: 45460
Location: yes

Posted: Tue Jun 06, 23 1:00 pm Post subject:

the new to replacement of a few years does mean that a first secondhand sale bev would be quite modern and still have plenty of lifespan

in many ways they should retain value better than ice as they have less moving parts to wear out

transport is useful, creating a system that is easy to use, cleanish and inclusive should not be too difficult, oh.

the profit/private vs collective issue is a problem until enough folk realize a collective strategy is best

observing the opposition to ulez and domestic road designation and cycle provision that reduces fumes and cars killing residents and cars killing cyclists we might have a problem

rural has population density issues for collective and urban has population density issues for profit/private

at a guess events will intervene long before we get it sorted

jema
Downsizer Moderator

Joined: 28 Oct 2004
Posts: 28111
Location: escaped from Swindon

Posted: Wed Jun 07, 23 4:20 am Post subject:

The used market is still in the very early stages.
I'm looking but I'm not about to spend 20K on a 2014 Tesla

The idea of buying practically 10 year old tech in an emerging technology for that kind of money is madness to me.
Of course many people think at that age the batteries about to die

It is also the case that 20K in China buys you a vast range of new cars.
I'm reminded of when I bought my first PC, it was Â£1000 and a model so cheap compared to the competition because viglen iirc decided to actually pile them high and sell them cheap. It was so relatively cheap that people were calling the magazines running the ads to ask it it was a scam?
We already know the China roughly where the prices should be at.

dpack

Joined: 02 Jul 2005
Posts: 45460
Location: yes

Posted: Wed Jun 07, 23 8:27 am Post subject:

the first gen bikes were retired after about ten years, they were not a good second hand prospect, the two might have made one almost ok one but the batteries were "tired"
their replacements would be a very good second hand buy, after a few years of use they are still excellent

if the cars of a similar quality age as well as those, a 3 to 5 yr old one should be a decent machine

nothing would persuade me to buy a first gen used one, or super cheap but new bike made for telly sales etc

pile them high, sell them cheap, sell lots because they work
i would buy one of those new chinese ones at a better price than a far lower spec of new but ice legacy made leccy, and far better than a second hand first gen all leccy one(those might be worth mothballing for a few decades and selling on as "vintage collectable" later)

Slim

Joined: 05 Mar 2006
Posts: 6540
Location: New England (In the US of A)

Posted: Wed Jun 07, 23 10:06 am Post subject:

The market for new ones is still moving around a lot. They're taking money where they can, but some realities of a competitive maturing market will be taking hold, and the scalability of Tesla's production is where they've really been smart. They can continue to drop prices it seems.
At this point, I could buy a new model 3 for maybe $40k, and get up to $7.5k back as a rebate from my state, and theoretically could get another $7.5k back as a federal tax credit, but that credit hasn't been put into place in its final form yet, unfortunately, so I don't think we could capitalize on it yet as we won't have enough federal tax liability to apply it to. When it becomes an upfront rebate instead of a tax credit we'll be able to use it. That would make a model 3 cost us about $25k which is about as much as any decent economy sedan.

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